Egypt: Transition to Democracy

View it with cautious optimism; it may create tidal waves in the Region
Pro-democracy protesters in Cairo and Alexandria have accomplished a feat on Friday February 11, 2011 that was considered a few months ago as impossible. They demonstrated on the streets for 18 days and forced the resignation of the country’s president, Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt with an iron fist for nearly 30 years. These demonstrations, termed by the news media as “people’s revolution”, were carried out with relatively few losses of human lives, largely because the military “protected’ the protesters. The supreme council of the military was given the responsibility by Mubarak to run the country after his departure and the protesters supported this move provided the military meets their demands. Two of the demands were swiftly met; suspension of the constitution (revision is being drafted and will be available for a vote for the people in 2 months through a referendum); dissolution of the parliament; and free elections to be held in about 6 months.
The majority of the protesters were young people, many of them students. As I was watching the news on television, my thoughts went back 54 years when I was a high school students, freedom fighter and youth leader in the 1956 Hungarian revolution. On October 24th 1956 we celebrated our victory as the Soviet backed communist government fell and a more liberal leader, Imre Nagy, formed a new government with the support of the military under the leadership of Pál Maléter. Both Nagy and Maléter were communists, trained by the Soviets, but in their hearts remained Hungarian. The success of the revolution was short lived. On November 4th Soviet tanks rolled into Budapest and Hungarian freedom fighters were no match for the mighty red army; by November 10th the soviets took control and the people’s revolution was defeated. Over 2,500 Hungarians and 700 Soviet troops were killed in the conflict, and 200,000 Hungarians fled as refugees. Mass arrests and denunciations continued thereafter. The new Soviet-installed government had suppressed all public opposition. Young freedom fighters were imprisoned and many of them executed; seeing that I decided to escape to Austria on November 19th crossing a border that was already guarded by the soviets.
Given this background, I see a rocky road ahead for the transition to democracy. The people’s revolution initially focused on the autocratic ruler who suppressed freedom and tolerated corruption practiced by government officials and ruling party loyalists. But by Monday, February 14th many of the other causes of the unrests started to surface. Thousands of state workers took to the streets of Cairo on Monday to make their case for higher salaries. Outside the TV and radio building in Cairo, hundreds of public transport workers held demonstrations demanding better pay. A similar protest was held in Tahrir Square by several hundred protesters from Egypt's Youth and Sports Organization. In Cairo, about 200 policemen held a demonstration for the second-straight day, also demanding better pay.
The military leadership will be facing major challenges in the next few months. Labour movements will want to improve standards of living by demanding higher wages. Islamist extremists may also use this opportunity to move the country towards an Islamic Republic. The protesters still need to form stable political parties that can gain support during elections which are planned in the next 6 months. Former western allies of Mubarak may also try to regain credibility with the new leadership by offering financial support that will be interpreted by neighbouring countries such as Iran as “satanic influences”, especially in the light of growing unrests within their own borders.
Hence, the military may not be able to hand over the leadership of their country to a democratically elected government in the near future. But, the people’s revolution will be credited with positive changes in Egypt, as well as with initiating tidal waves for democratic reforms in the neighbouring countries.
Frank Hegyi is a former freedom fighter and author of the book: “Dare to Take the Next Step –Adventures of a Refugee” see www.hegyipublications.com